Late Night Wars

I'm finding the whole Jay/Leno/Tonight Show argument very amusing. This is mostly because I don't really have a side in the fight. I don't really watch late night television unless there's a guest I find particularly interesting. In all honesty, I'm surprised that some of these shows still exist. In the days of cable TV and DVDs and DVRs I'd think people would be watching something more interesting than moderately amusing but poor interviews with movie actors and the like. Then again, that's when most people are relaxing for bed and likely want something calming that they don't have to really concentrate on.

Part of the fight seems to surround Jay Leno's intention to 'retire' from the Tonight Show. I'm seen it argued that Jay decided to step down and his recent 'unretirement' is poor form and Favre-like. I believe that Jay's attitude near the end of his term and his 'new' show reveal the truth regarding the situation: NBC pushed him to quit. During the course of the five years between that decision and the execution of the deal, Leno's position changed. His ratings improved. Suddenly, it wasn't NBC politely pushing him aside for the new blood, they were taking a gamble with Conan and felt the need to keep Jay around as insurance.

Note: “I was very surprised Jay was forced out of The Tonight Show,” says veteran Letterman Executive Producer Rob Burnett. “It was surprising to me that the guy who has been at it for as long as he has and is still hosting a profitable show, that NBC would decide out with the old and in with the new.”

http://www.broadcastingcable.com/article/106051-Midnight_Madness_Late_Night_TV.php

Already in 2006 people didn't believe it wasn't Jay's decision to quit. Another article from 2006 points to Jay being the 'good soldier'. It also makes this comment: 'there's reason to believe O'Brien would attract a narrower niche than the current occupant.'

http://www.variety.com/article/VR1117952095.html?categoryid=1682&cs=1

It seems reasonable to say that there was some concern that Conan and the Tonight Show weren't a good fit. By 2008, the 2005 decision to remove the fading Jay and replace him with the strong Conan was starting to look less and less solid. Jay's ratings were on the upswing and Conan's weren't.

http://www.newsfromme.com/archives/2008_04_25.html#015123

As these articles remind us, Jay was expected to be a free agent at the end of his time on the Tonight Show. Speculation had him reviving his show on another network as no one expected him to continue to play the 'good soldier' role by continuing his show on the same network but at an earlier time.

http://www.newsfromme.com/archives/2008_12_09.html#016325

Conan's first week as host of the Tonight Show garnered a lot of curious eyes. The bulk of those eyes left immediately. By his second week as host, Conan's rating was lower than Jay's had been. Jay had been beating Letterman. Conan couldn't do that.

http://www.newsfromme.com/archives/2009_06_12.html#017259

NBC had trapped themselves in a corner and it's still not clear at this moment how it will be resolved. At this point it certainly looks like Jay will soon be back on the Tonight Show and Conan will no longer be employed by NBC but will be well paid to not work for them. NBC has to scramble to fill five hours of prime-time programming. No matter what happens, they are hosed to some degree.

I think that's what interests me the most about all this. This is television history, one way or another. Even if it becomes nothing more impactful than changing the host of the Tonight Show, that's still something. It seems more likely that it will damage NBC from a long-term perspective. Could this be the first step in the demise of the network? Probably not. If it is, it shouldn't be a surprise.